The Bay Area housing market hit a lot of national headlines in May. In San Francisco, AI and tech-driven demand has created aggressive bidding wars on the scarce inventory. Skyrocketing rents are back in the norm. Even the city’s condo market, which has been under pressure for six years, is showing signs of demand recovery.
For the first time in many years job creation in the Bay Area is positive and economic opportunity is attracting net inbound migration, despite the region’s chronic shortage of homes and affordability issues. It’s notable that other tech cities like Seattle and Austin are not seeing the boom in the real estate market related to AI. In fact, those cities are now sending more people to San Francisco than the reverse.
While the city dominates the headlines, many areas have not seen the massive wealth effect driving home buying demand like the city has. In this cycle, this resurgent demand is so far concentrated to a very small section in the city, and luxury markets in Peninsula and Marin.
For much of the region, interest rates matter more than stock market performance. In May, mortgage rates jumped higher with sharply higher inflation data. That tension between higher interest rates and the wealth effect is likely to continue for the rest of 2026. Inflation pressures have been pushing higher, and it seems unlikely that interest rates will dip again very soon.
Mike Simonsen
Chief Economist
Compass International Holdings
