July 2026 | San Francisco House & Condo Markets | Market Outlook

July 2026 San Francisco Market Outlook Data through June 2026

July 2026 Housing Market Report The Bay Area housing market is the center of national attention this summer. AI-driven wealth has offset persistently higher mortgage rates, pushing demand in a handful of neighborhoods to dramatic levels. The most intense competition is concentrated in San Francisco itself. In June, 44 homes in the city sold for at least $1 million over asking (see charts, next page). Sales in San Francisco, San Mateo, and Marin are running well above last year's pace. Other parts of the Bay Area are more exposed to AI's other edge: jobs, inflation, and rates. Most buyers need a mortgage, and rates have stayed elevated — though still below last year's level. Nationally, inflation remains well above what policymakers and bond markets are comfortable with, driven by energy costs, government spending, and quite possibly the AI investment boom itself. Mortgage rates spent another month near 6.5%. Santa Clara County is feeling a different edge: Bay Area tech companies have cut 58,000 jobs so far in 2026, and in the South Bay, inventory is climbing while average sale prices trail last year. In many ways, the Bay Area is leading the nation's housing story in both directions — new wealth pulling the top of the market to record heights, while job insecurity and high rates weigh on buyers further down. It's always worth watching the Bay Area markets closely as we often signal where the rest of the country is headed next.

San Francisco's single-family housing market is continuing to break away from the post-pandemic correction and has entered a period of strong price appreciation. The median single-family home price reached new highs of $2,128,000 in June 2026, an increase of 24.8% from $1,705,500 in June 2025. Prices are also 15.0% above the June 2022 median of $1,850,000. June's median price came in 3.3% lower than May's median of $2,200,000, in line with seasonal summer cooling trends. There were 232 single-family home sales in June, up 4.0% from 223 sales in June 2025. While activity remains below the 250 sales recorded in June 2022, it is stronger than the transaction levels seen in 2023 and 2024, suggesting that demand has remained resilient despite elevated home prices. One of the clearest explanations for this appreciation is the severe shortage of available inventory and inflow of money from the AI boom. At the end of June, there were just 590 active listings (single-family homes and condos combined), while 546 properties were under contract. This equates to an absorption rate of approximately 92%, meaning nearly as many homes were pending sale as were actively available. Put another way, the market had just over one month of inventory, which is exceptionally tight supply for this time of year. This is the highest absorption rate and lowest level of inventory that we have observed during the summer market since 2020, underscoring the intensity of buyer competition. Homes also continue to sell quickly. Single-family homes averaged 21 days on market in June, while condos averaged 37 days. Condo Days on Market improved from 41 days in May and have fallen dramatically from 60 days in June 2025, a 38.3% reduction in time on market. Single-family homes spent slightly longer on the market than in May (21 days versus 18 days), but they continue to sell much faster than last June, when the average was 27 days. Pricing strength is also evident on a price-per-square-foot basis. The median price per square foot reached $1,230 in June, up 22.3% from $1,006 one year ago. Prices have increased 28% since January, when the median price per square foot was $961. The median size of homes selling has also increased. This suggests that a greater share of larger homes is trading hands, supporting what many agents are reporting in the field: Demand for larger, high-end homes continues to outpace available supply, contributing to what could be described as a "mansion shortage."

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.

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