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Fall has settled over San Francisco, and with it comes the question I hear every year: does the market cool off with the weather? |
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| | Not this year. Homes selling $1 Million or more over asking used to be a once a year headline. This year it has happened 252 times. Below we break down what's behind it, where the mega-overbids are happening, and where buyers can still negotiate as we head into the holidays. |
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The breakdown: a record that lapped itself: |
| From January 1 to October 16, 252 San Francisco homes (all residential, including 2 to 4 unit buildings) closed $1M or more over asking. The old record: 41, in the same window of 2022. Last year: 13. What sold: 201 houses, 26 condos and townhouses, 22 two to four unit buildings, and 3 TICs
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The main driver is supply: |
| From January to September, an average of 192 houses were for sale each month, roughly half of 2022's 347 and the lowest in ten years. Yet house sales held steady: 1,700 this year against 1,678 last year.
Same number of buyers, far fewer choices. This year about one house sale in nine closed $1M+ over asking. The old high was one in 59. |
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| Share of house sales that closed $1M+ over asking this year: Inner Richmond: 45% (10 of 22) Cow Hollow: 40% (6 of 15) Noe Valley: 33% (32 of 96). In 2022 it was 4 of 260. Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights: 32% (14 of 44) Inner Sunset: 31% (9 of 29) Pacific Heights: 25% (11 of 44) Marina: 25% (5 of 20) Lake: 33% (6 of 18) Inner Mission: 21% (7 of 34) Bernal Heights: 8% (9 of 119) Ashbury Heights: 64% (7 of 11) Russian Hill: 23% (3 of 13)
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Where can buyers negotiate? |
| Houses compete almost everywhere. Condos split: 3-bedrooms compete, 1-bedrooms and under $750K negotiate.
Below $3M, financed buyers won over asking about as often as cash buyers. Above $4M, cash takes over.. |
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| *Market data courtesy of Paulo Serna, Compass |
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A little haunted a lot of history: |
| Now for a little Halloween fun. SF has an older housing stock and an even older collection of stories. Here are seven local spots with a spooky past. |
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thinking about your next move? |
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Cold weather or not, every neighborhood tells its own story, and the numbers behind yours may surprise you. If you’d like to see them, just let me know.
Happy Halloween! Maggie |
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions. |
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