Maggie's Market Minute: SF's Shifting Dynamics at the Start of the Spring Selling Season

Maggie's Musings

Mar 23

Shifting Supply Dynamics

Almost every real estate market in the Bay Area has seen significant increases in active and coming-soon listings since the start of the year — a notable shift in supply dynamics. However, San Francisco remains an outlier, with inventory levels staying relatively flat.

A Market of Contrasts

The current real estate market in SF is a mixed bag: fierce competition for single-family homes, while the market for multi-families and condos/co-ops are soft. Single-family homes make up only 26.5% of listings but represent 48% of sold units, highlighting their high demand. In contrast, condos and co-ops account for 73% of listings but only 44% of sales.

Single-Family Homes: Competitive and Climbing

Some neighborhoods are experiencing wild overbidding due to very low single-family home supply. In fact, it’s not unusual to find 8-10 competing bids, and a couple of homes have sold for $1M above the asking price and all cash offers. If you’re a single-family home buyer eyeing top neighborhood, the appreciation potential is undeniable. Even in a market where interest rates remain north of 6.5% and the stock market is in the red year-to-date, we’re seeing bidding wars and remarkable price jumps. Imagine what's to come in more favorable economic conditions and mortage rates.

Condos: A Buyer’s Market

On the flip side, condo buyers have a unique advantage right now. With less competition, there are opportunities to purchase below market value while enjoying the luxury of being more discerning. The median sale price for condos across San Francisco County dipped to $1,010,000 — the lowest point since September 2015 and a full 23% below the high of $1,300,000 reached in June 2022. That said, luxury condo and co-op sales experienced a significant jump in the first two months of 2025 (up 60% year-over-year), signaling renewed interest in high-end urban living.

What Does This Mean for You?

This unique market presents different opportunities depending on your goals. For buyers, condos present a chance to purchase below market value. Sellers, particularly those with single-family homes, can capitalize on intense demand and limited supply.

According to Robert Reffkin, CEO of Compass, San Francisco is “the most underrated market in America” and primed for the biggest rebound in the next five years. If you're looking to invest—or simply make a smart move before the market shifts—now is the time to explore your options.

Click Here for a Detailed Market Report

Recent Sales, Listing and Upcoming Listing in 2025

231 Clinton Park

82 Arroyo Way

1800 Turk St #103

Nob Hill Condo

1562 Cayuga Ave

1730 22nd Ave

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Cheers,

Maggie

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.